2026 References

Main references for each Insight 

For a full list of references for each insight, see Ospina et al. (under review) Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2026. Global Sustainability. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.23059603

Insight 1 

• Bao, S., et al. (2026). Ocean heat content in 2025. Nature Reviews. Earth & Environment, 7(4), 206–208.
• Mauritsen, T., et al. (2025). Earth’s energy imbalance more than doubled in recent decades. AGU Advances, 6(3), e2024AV001636.
• Merchant, C. J., et al. (2025). Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance. Environmental Research Letters, 20(2), 024037.
• Pan, Y., et al. (2026). Ocean heat content sets another record in 2025. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 1–23.
• Trenberth, K. E., et al. (2025). Distinctive pattern of global warming in ocean heat content. Journal of Climate, 38(9), 2155–2168.

Insight 2 

• GlaMBIE Team. (2025). Community estimate of global glacier mass changes from 2000 to 2023. Nature, 639(8054), 382–388.
• Hamlington, B. D., et al. (2024). The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 601.
• Nauels, A., et al. (2025). Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades. Nature Climate Change, 15(11), 1198–1204.
• Seroussi, H., et al. (2024). Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble. Earth’s Future, 12(9), e2024EF004561.
• van den Akker, T., et al. (2025). Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. The Cryosphere, 19(1), 283–301.

Insight 3 

• Chandanpurkar, H. A., et al. (2025). Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise. Science Advances, 11(30), Article eadx0298.
• Chen, L., et al. (2025). Global increase in the occurrence and impact of multiyear droughts. Science, 387(6731), 278–284.
• Citrini, A., et al. (2026). Global managed aquifer recharge potential as a solution to water scarcity. Nature Water 4, 965–978.
• Rosa, L., & Sangiorgio, M. (2025). Global water gaps under future warming levels. Nature Communications, 16(1), 1192.

Insight 4 

• Dickau, M., et al. (2026). Irreversible climate changes driven by degree-years of temperature overshoot. Communications Earth & Environment, 7, 805.
• Kruczkiewicz, A., et al. (2025). The human and social impacts of climate overshoot. PNAS Nexus, 4(11), pgaf332.
• Reisinger, A., et al. (2025). Overshoot: A conceptual review of exceeding and returning to global warming of 1.5°C. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 50(1), 185–217.
• UNEP. (2026). Limiting overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.
• Theokritoff, E., et al. (2026). Climate overshoot implications for local adaptation planning. Climate Policy, 26(2), 344–351.

Insight 5 

• Bodirsky, B. L., et al. (2025). A food system transformation pathway reconciles 1.5 °C global warming with improved health, environment and social inclusion. Nature Food, 6(12), 1133–1152.
• Hadjikakou, M., et al. (2025). Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. One Earth, 8(9), 101351.
• Rockström, J., et al. (2025). The EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems. The Lancet, 406(10512), 1625–1700.
• Sundiang, M., et al. (2025). Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment. The Lancet Planetary Health, 9(10), 101339.
• Vittis, Y., et al. (2025). Labour requirements for healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels: A modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 9(10), 101342.

Insight 6 

• Bastien-Olvera, B. A., et al. (2026). Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon. Nature Climate Change, 16(3), 297–304.
• Folini, D., et al. (2025). The climate in climate economics. The Review of Economic Studies, 92(1), 299–338.
• Neal, T. et al. (2025). Reconsidering the macroeconomic damage of severe warming. Environmental Research Letters, 20(4), 044029.
• Yoo, J. (2026). Global and national social costs of carbon under uncertainty. Climate Change Economics, 17(1), 2640003.

Insight 7 

• Callahan, C. W., & Mankin, J. S. (2025). Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability. Nature, 640(8060), 893–901.
• Quilcaille, Y., et al. (2025). Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors. Nature, 645(8080), 392–398.
• Sadai, S., et al. (2025). Estimating the sea level rise responsibility of industrial carbon producers. Environmental Research Letters, 20, 044012.
• Schöngart, S., et al. (2025). High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide. Nature Climate Change, 15(6), 627–633.
• Stuart-Smith, R., et al. (2025). Refining methods for attributing health impacts to climate change: A heat-mortality case study in Zürich. Climatic Change, 178, 165.

Insight 8 

• Damborg, J., et al. (2026). The EU CBAM and the Global South: A review of the economic and geopolitical implications of unilateral climate and trade measures. Environmental Research Letters, 21(2), 023001.
• Rowan, S. S. (2025). Effective climate clubs require ambition, leverage and insulation: Theorizing issue linkage in climate change and trade. The Review of International Organizations, 20(3), 605–630.
• Unger, C. (2026). Climate club politics – the challenges of making a small group work on a global issue. Energy Research & Social Science, 135, Article 104684.
• Zhang, W., & Sovacool, B. K. (2025). The “triple burden” effect and “pressure-opportunity paradox” of net-zero transitions: Exploring the political economy of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) implementation in the Global South. Energy Strategy Reviews, 62, 101913.

Insight 9 

• Roberts, T. J., et al. (Eds.). (2025). Climate obstruction: A global assessment. Oxford University Press.
• Franta, B. (2025). How the most important fact of global warming has been obscured. In R. Proctor and L. Schiebinger (Eds.), Ignorance Unmasked: Essays in the New Science of Agnotology (pp. 23–41). Stanford University Press.
• de Nadal, L. (2025). Low-emissions, high tensions: Social media groups and the escalation of climate obstruction. Environmental Communication, 20(1), 176–197.

Insight 10 

• Shittu, I., et al. (2025). Does global geopolitical risk jeopardize the clean energy transition? New evidence from a global panel. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 223, 116006.
• Hoffart, F. M., et al. (2024). Exploring the interdependence of climate, finance, energy, and geopolitics: A conceptual framework for systemic risks amidst multiple crises. Applied Energy, 361, 122885.
• Ulug, M., & Andrei, R. (2025). Energy transition under twin shocks: Geopolitical and macrofinancial risks. Energy Economics, 151, Article 108949.