The years 2023 and 2024 have shattered global temperature records. Last year was the warmest year on record, with a global average of 1.45°C (± 0.12°C) warmer than the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level. This trend has continued into 2024, with each month from June 2023 to June 2024 setting a new average temperature record for the respective month. Global sea surface temperatures set new records for 14 consecutive months (April 2023–May 2024). In August 2024 the global temperature soared 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels. It is highly probable that 2024 will become the warmest year on record. This level of warming and human-induced climate change has fuelled a series of extreme weather events worldwide, making them more likely and intense. Examples include Canada’s most extensive wildfire season on record (twice as likely), the deadly heatwaves across South and South-East Asia (30 times more likely), and the extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean region that caused devastating floods in Libya (up to 50 times more likely and up to 50% intense).
The first Global Stocktake (GST), a comprehensive assessment of progress on the Paris Agreement, was finalised last year at COP28 in Dubai. Its main conclusion is that the world is significantly off-track in meeting the Paris Agreement´s goal of limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C. The GST called for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, as well as setting important agreed-upon global goals to triple renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. However, it also included provisions that leave room for continued use of some fossil fuels, and it lacked a timeline for phasing out fossil fuels across all sectors. To limit long-term warming to below 2°C, global emissions by 2030 must be 28% lower than the levels projected under current policies. Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires a much more ambitious reduction of 42%.
At COP28 there was also progress on adaptation, with the adoption of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience (FGCR), which elaborates on and operationalises the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). Similarly, there was progress on the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF). However, the FGCR lacks specific, measurable indicators, and much remains to be solved regarding the funding and framework for implementation of the LDF. The current adaptation finance gap is estimated at US$194–366 billion per year, and is widening due to faltering financial flows and increasing adaptation needs. COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, is expected to have a major focus on climate finance, with the adoption of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) as the top priority. A successful COP29 will be one that makes significant progress towards unlocking climate finance at scale. This would enable greater ambition on mitigation and adaptation targets in the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in February 2025.
The 10 New Insights in Climate Change, jointly produced by Future Earth, The Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme, is an annual series that highlights key recent advances in climate change research across the natural and social sciences. Leveraging the global and diverse research networks of the partner organisations, the report gathers expert input on recent advances in climate change research to present a prioritised set of Insights. These Insights are a timely and succinct resource to help policymakers and negotiators in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process stay informed about the latest developments across various fields of climate change research. It is important to note that this is not a “top 10” list; the selection aims to reflect the thematic breadth of climate change research, and the ordering of the Insights does not indicate their relative importance. Finally, the title includes the years 2024–2025 to acknowledge that while the peer-reviewed research underpinning the Insights was published in 2023–2024, the relevance of the policy implications extends well beyond this timeframe.
The first two insights of this year’s report highlight recent changes in two kinds of emissions from human activities that have direct implications in the near term for global warming and regional climate. First, atmospheric methane levels have surged in the past two decades, tracking warming scenarios of 3°C or more, largely driven by emissions from human activities (Insight 1). Given methane’s higher potency and shorter atmospheric lifetime, reducing these emissions with existing technologies is one of the fastest and most effective levers for limiting near-term warming. But we are not yet seeing the emissions reductions that have been pledged, largely due to a lack of enforceable policy. Atmospheric aerosol loading, on the other hand, is declining in some regions due to effective policies aimed at improving air quality (Insight 2). While this is a very positive trend in terms of human health, it poses some short-term challenges regarding climate change, given the net cooling effect of some aerosols and their regionally differentiated impacts on rainfall and extreme weather events. These insights highlight the need for comprehensive mitigation planning strategies that consider multiple pollutants and their interactions, as well as comprehensive climate risk assessments, in the case of aerosols, to inform adaptation planning.
Hundreds of millions of people find themselves living under climate conditions outside what is considered the historical range of habitability, and the exposed population will continue to grow as warming continues (Insight 3). This is now an undeniable priority for adaptation planning, particularly in lower-income countries in tropical regions. Adaptation measures should include specific provisions for different vulnerable groups. Evidence has been accumulating rapidly on the specific impacts of climate change, especially of heat extremes, on pregnant women and newborn infants (Insight 4). Early warning systems are a priority area for regional cooperation, in connection with heat preparedness plans at national and subnational levels. Extreme heat affects human health and livelihoods, as well as ecosystems and infrastructure, and has ripple effects across the economy. Climate change appears to be making El Niño events more intense, which could potentially generate additional global economic costs to the tune of tens of trillions of US dollars by the end of the century (Insight 5). We highlight how climate hazards can disrupt critical infrastructure, the vulnerability of increasingly interconnected networks, and approaches to increasing their resilience (Insight 7). The development and implementation of robust adaptation measures across the Global South will largely depend on substantial increases in the climate finance devoted to adaptation.
The gradual increase in average (and extreme) temperatures that follows from the continued accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere pose grave challenges to societies. But the challenges that would come from the disruption of key geophysical processes that operate at regional to planetary scale would be of a significantly higher order. Recent publications about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) document the slowdown and suggest the possibility of collapse much sooner than previously estimated (Insight 5). Such an event would have truly catastrophic consequences for our societies, particularly through its effects on regional temperatures and precipitation patterns. Similarly, the resilience of the Amazon rainforest is being eroded, increasing the risk of large-scale collapse. Protecting and restoring the Amazon’s ecological and biocultural diversity is vital for strengthening the forests’ resilience and in turn maintaining the regional water recycling process (Insight 6). However, the rapid reduction in GHG emissions is indispensable to safeguard the stability of these Earth system processes.
The final set of insights are related to just transitions and climate-resilient development (CRD). Cities are central nodes for climate action, both to mitigate their outsized impact footprint, and to adapt to the changing climate for their growing share of the population. Planning for CRD requires a holistic, systems approach that can be tailored to diverse socio-economic and environmental conditions (Insight 8). As cities strive to reduce their GHG footprint and enhance their resilience, the just transition imperative means they must pay attention to the sourcing and use of energy transition minerals (ETMs), which are crucial for clean energy technologies. The demand for ETMs has been growing rapidly as the world starts moving away from fossil fuels. Improvements in the governance of ETM value chains will be necessary for the transition to be truly global and just (Insight 9). At the national and subnational level, the implementation of climate and energy policies must also address the challenge of gaining citizen acceptance or at least not generating entrenched resistance. Whether or not a policy is perceived as fair strongly influences its acceptance by, or resistance from, the citizens (Insight 10). This is crucial for effective policy design and implementation, and points to the importance of understanding the political-economic context that fosters either acceptance or resistance.
We hope that the 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2024/2025 will reach party delegations attending COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, helping inform their positions and arguments, and ultimately being reflected in the final outcomes of the negotiation, including:
- Concrete financial commitments to significantly increase heat adaptation measures, especially for vulnerable populations, and support the global implementation of comprehensive early warning systems. Progress on the inclusion of specific, measurable indicators within the Framework for Global Climate Resilience (FGCR) focused on heat stress.
- A formal decision encouraging all parties to incorporate explicit, quantifiable methane reduction targets in the NDCs, with a support mechanism to assist countries in developing these targets and action plans. Additionally, a focused initiative and/or specialised task force to provide recommendations for integrating aerosol considerations into future NDCs would be a very positive step towards more comprehensive climate action plans.
- Strengthening and refinement of the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) framework, with specific provisions to strengthen governance efforts so that the sourcing and management of ETMs align with just transition principles, emphasising equity, sustainability, and benefit-sharing across the entire value chain. This could include guidance for cities to follow these principles as they implement climate-resilient development strategies.
- The establishment of a robust New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance, coupled with a clear framework for countries to close the ambition and implementation gaps, should set the stage for a major step-up of climate action between COP29 and COP30.
