Recent years have been dominated by compounding global crises. Just as the world appeared to be emerging from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through global markets and supply chains, threatening food security, and reshaping the energy portfolios. In the long term, the political and economic impacts of this shock are likely to further incentivise the transition away from fossil fuels. However, in the short term at least, these crises have moved attention away from climate action, pushing aspirations for a green recovery to a lower priority in national and international politics, and even leading to new permissions for oil drilling and reigniting coal power plants once again.
New evidence on climate risk suggests that multiple climate tipping elements could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C. Current policies point towards a temperature increase of 2.8°C1 , which entails additional risks for multiple tipping elements of central importance to Earth system stability2.
This report presents 10 salient insights from climate change research, stemming mainly from literature published in 2021 and 2022. Taken together they reveal the complexities of the interactions between climate change and other risks, such as conflicts, pandemics, food crises and underlying development challenges – pushing us ever closer to breaking past the socioecological limits within which people and ecosystems must remain to thrive. The purpose of the publication is not only to identify the mounting impacts of climate change and multiple barriers to climate action, but also to highlight implications and recommendations in support of a way forward for negotiators, policymakers and other relevant actors.
Rapid mitigation is more urgent than ever. As global temperatures rise, adaptive responses become less effective. Societies and ecosystems start hitting limits to adaptation (Insight 1), beyond which further losses and damages can be expected (Insight 8). “Soft” limits to adaptation can be overcome through policy actions that facilitate new technologies, institutions and social structures. But there are also “hard” limits, such as the direct threat to life posed by the combination of extreme heat and humidity or rising sea levels threatening communities in low-lying coastal regions. Effective syncing of ambitious mitigation and adaptation agendas, in light of emerging science on limits to adaptation, is needed in order to avert and minimise further losses and damages.
Vulnerability hotspots emerge at the confluence of increasing climate-driven hazards and increasing sensitivity in social and economic systems (Insight 2). In these contexts, adaptive capacity is weakest for marginalised communities, particularly in the low-to-middle income countries due to inequality and insufficient resources. Biodiversity loss, pollution and climate change conform into a “triple planetary crisis” outlined by the UN, amplifying the challenges relating to food, water, energy security, and human health and safety (Insight 5). Human insecurity and conflict, insidiously intertwined, exacerbate climate change in a variety of ways, with deep and long-lasting impacts far beyond the battlefields. Climate change-related health impacts are projected to increase with additional warming, with risks to physical and mental health (Insight 3). Animal and plant health are also heavily impacted. Resilience-building requires enhanced monitoring and surveillance, early warning and response systems, and coordinated action across sectors.
Climate and weather factors are driving involuntary migration and displacement, which will increase in the coming decades, due to increasing impacts of climate change (Insight 4). But the links between human mobility and climate change are notoriously complex, and the ability or willingness to move even in the face of climate risks is not a given. Implementing anticipatory approaches in humanitarian and development programmes should be a priority.
Integrated land management can provide climate solutions with multiple potential co-benefits for people and ecosystems, but as global warming increases, our current assumptions of what land can do for us become less certain (Insight 6). The priority of policy actions should stay focused on reducing GHG emissions from land-based activities by discouraging conversion of natural ecosystems, as well as reducing methane and nitrous oxide emissions, particularly from livestock.
Mobilising private finance to align with sustainable activities is a crucial step towards decarbonising the economy. Unfortunately, the so-called sustainable practices in the private finance sector are not yet catalysing the deep and rapid transformations needed to meet climate targets (Insight 7). The sector’s sluggish recognition of corporate greenwashing is connected to the data gaps in climate disclosure and metrics, and an absence of analytical tools for supporting sustainable financial practices. Active engagement by large institutional investors, on the other hand, is one area showing promising outcomes. Looking ahead, governance needs to be reformed – and public policy strengthened – to ensure private capital flows into climate solutions at the required scale and pace.
Loss and Damage (L&D) is one of the most politically contentious issues in current climate diplomacy, as it implies the responsibility and potential liability for harm inflicted by climate change impacts – an issue that will grow as those impacts accelerate and intensify (Insight 8). With no progress towards an L&D financing mechanism at COP26, this will no doubt be a critical issue at COP27. But climate politics and decision-making are not limited to the UN climate summits. Decisions are taken every day at national, corporate and community levels, which cumulatively determine the response of societies to the climate crisis. Recent research provides additional evidence that more inclusive decision-making can lead to more effective climate-resilient development, yet it is still commonly implemented in a perfunctory manner (Insight 9).
Structural obstacles have created lock-ins across policies, industries and societies that drive resource extraction and emissions ever upwards (Insight 10). Positive change can be accelerated through progressive social movements, new forms of governance, and appropriate policy instruments. Across the world, societies are already suffering the impacts of climate change. But we can avoid even worse conditions in the future if we have the political will to embrace new economic paradigms that can unlock our potential to achieve decarbonisation.
All statements in this summary report are based on the following article and the references provided therein: Martin et al. (2022): Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2022. Global Sustainability.
References
- Assuming a continuation of current policies, global warming this century will reach 2.8°C (range 2.3–3.3°C) with 66% probability (UNEP, Emissions Report Gap 2021) https:// www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021
- Armstrong McKay, D.I., et al., (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377, eabn7950. doi:10.1126/science.abn7950
