2025 References

Main references for each Insight 

For a full list of references for each insight, see Ospina et al. (under review) Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2025. Global Sustainability. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.17457864

Insight 1 

• Allan, R. P. & Merchant, C. J. Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 20, 044002 (2025). 
• Forster, P. M. et al. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 16, 2625–2658 (2024). 
• Goessling, H. F., Rackow, T. & Jung, T. Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo. Science 387, 68–73 (2025). 
• Hodnebrog, Ø. et al. Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance. Commun Earth Environ 5, 1–9 (2024). 
• Min, S.-K. Human influence can explain the widespread exceptional warmth in 2023. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 1–4 (2024). 
• Myhre, G., Hodnebrog, Ø., Loeb, N. & Forster, P. M. Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models. Science 388, 1210–1213 (2025).

Insight 2 

• Capotondi, A. et al. A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 1–17 (2024). 
• Cheng, L. et al. Record high temperatures in the ocean in 2024. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 1–18 (2025) doi:10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3. 
• Lee, C., Song, H., Choi, Y., Cho, A. & Marshall, J. Observed multi-decadal increase in the surface ocean’s thermal inertia. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 1–7 (2025). 
• Merchant, C. J., Allan, R. P. & Embury, O. Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance. Environ. Res. Lett. 20, 024037 (2025). 
• Terhaar, J., Burger, F. A., Vogt, L., Frölicher, T. L. & Stocker, T. F. Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected. Nature 639, 1–5 (2025). 

Insight 3 

• Burton, C. A. et al. Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5 °C. Nat. Geosci. 17, 1108–1114 (2024). 
• Friedlingstein, P. et al. Global carbon budget 2024. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 17, 965–1039 (2025). 
• Ke, P. et al. Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023. Natl. Sci. Rev. 11, nwae367 (2024). 
• Li, X. et al. Large live biomass carbon losses from droughts in the northern temperate ecosystems during 2016-2022. Nat. Commun. 16, 4980 (2025). 
• Ramage, J. et al. The net GHG balance and budget of the permafrost region (2000–2020) from ecosystem flux upscaling. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 38, e2023GB007953 (2024). 
  

Insight 4 

• Brodie, J. F. et al. Defaunation impacts on the carbon balance of tropical forests. Conserv. Biol. 39, e14414 (2025).
• Domeignoz-Horta, L. A. et al. Plant diversity drives positive microbial associations in the rhizosphere enhancing carbon use efficiency in agricultural soils. Nat. Commun. 15, 8065 (2024). 
• Pfenning-Butterworth, A. et al. Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases. Lancet Planet. Health 8, e270–e283 (2024). 
• Weiskopf, S. R. et al. Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage. Nat. Commun. 15, 4354 (2024).
  

Insight 5

• Ao, Z. et al. A national-scale assessment of land subsidence in China’s major cities. Science 384, 301–306 (2024). 
• Bhattarai, N. et al. Warming temperatures exacerbate groundwater depletion rates in India. Sci. Adv. 9, eadi1401 (2023).
• Jasechko, S. et al. Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally. Nature 625, 715–721 (2024).
• Kuang, X. et al. The changing nature of groundwater in the global water cycle. Science 383, eadf0630 (2024).

Insight 6 

• Barcellos, C., Matos, V. P., Lana, R. & Lowe, R. Climate change, thermal anomalies, and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil. Sci. Rep. 14, (2024). 
• Childs, M. L., Lyberger, K., Harris, M., Burke, M., & Mordecai, E. A. (2024). Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia. [pre-print in medRxiv]
• Farooq, Z. et al. Impact of climate and Aedes albopictus establishment on dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Europe: a time-to-event analysis. Lancet Planet. Health 9, e374–e383 (2025). 
• Feng, F. et al. Temperature-driven dengue transmission in a changing climate: Patterns, trends, and future projections. GeoHealth 8, e2024GH001059 (2024). 
• de Souza, W. M. & Weaver, S. C. Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 22, 476–491 (2024). 

Insight 7 

• Dasgupta, S. et al. Heat stress and the labour force. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 5, 859–872 (2024). 
• Li, M. et al. Inequitable distribution of risks associated with occupational heat exposure driven by trade. Nat. Commun. 16, 537 (2025). 
• Morris, J. et al. Reconciling widely varying estimates of the global economic impacts from climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 124–127 (2025). 
• Neal, T., Newell, B. R. & Pitman, A. Reconsidering the macroeconomic damage of severe warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 20, 044029 (2025). 
• Sun, Y. et al. Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk. Nature 627, 797–804 (2024).

Insight 8 

• Deprez, A. et al. Sustainability limits needed for CO₂ removal. Science 383, 484–486 (2024).
• Ganti, G. et al. Evaluating the near- and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 1–7 (2024). 
• Lamb, W. F. et al. The carbon dioxide removal gap. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 644–651 (2024). 
• Schleussner, C.-F. et al. Overconfidence in climate overshoot. Nature 634, 366–373 (2024). 
• Shindell, D. & Rogelj, J. Preserving carbon dioxide removal to serve critical needs. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 1–6 (2025). 

Insight 9 

• Naef, A., Friggens, N. L. & Njeukam, P. Carbon offsetting of fossil fuel emissions through afforestation is limited by financial viability and spatial requirements. Commun. Earth Environ. 6, 1–11 (2025). 
• Probst, B. S. et al. Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects. Nat. Commun. 15, 9562 (2024). 
• Trencher, G., Nick, S., Carlson, J. & Johnson, M. Demand for low-quality offsets by major companies undermines climate integrity of the voluntary carbon market. Nat. Commun. 15, 6863 (2024).

Insight 10 

• Cocker, F. G. Mixes of Policy Instruments for the Full Decarbonisation of Energy Systems: A Review. Energies 18, 148 (2025). 
• Dimanchev, E. & Knittel, C. R. Designing climate policy mixes: Analytical and energy system modeling approaches. Energy Econ. 122, 106697 (2023). 
• Scott, W. A. Cost, innovation, and emissions leakage from overlapping climate policy. Energy Econ. 139, 107949 (2024).
• Stechemesser, A. et al. Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades. Science 385, 884–892 (2024).